It is time to roll out the much-anticipated Super Bowl Stock Market Forecast.

As some of you might remember, Robert Stovall, an equity analyst for EF Hutton, published a bizarre statistical anomaly in the mid-1970s. He found that in years where an original NFL franchise won the Super Bowl, the stock market would go up. In the years that one of the AFL franchises won, the market would go down. That was fun back in the ’70s when you had 10 to 15 data points. After 58 Super Bowls the anomaly still holds up, but the recent trend has been less reliable.

The rule has correctly picked the direction of the market 42 of 58 times (72.4%). It has correctly predicted 33 of 42 “up” years (78.5%) and 10 of 16 “down” years (62.5 %).

However, since Super Bowl 50 its predictive value has diminished significantly. In fact, seven of the last eight stock market years have gone counter to the prediction. This can be blamed on two people, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.

In the last ten years, Tom Brady has played in five Super Bowls. He won four of them, breaking the market prediction rule three times.

Patrick Mahomes is going to his fourth Super Bowl; he has won three. Also breaking the market prediction rule three times. However, the one year he lost (to Tom Brady), the Dow also finished higher. Meaning, every year Mahomes has made it to the Super Bowl, the market has finished higher.

The Eagles statistics are more unfortunate. The Eagles have been in the Super Bowl twice in the last ten years. Winning one and losing one. The year they won, the market finished down. The year they lost, the market was positive. Also worth noting, in three out of the four years the Eagles made it to any Super Bowl, the market finished negative.

So where does that leave us? Cheer for the Eagles, knowing they have appeared in four Super Bowls and in three of those years, the market was negative? Or Cheer for the Chiefs knowing that just the presence of Mahomes has resulted in a positive market every year, but an AFC victory has not been good for market returns historically?

Ultimately, that is a decision between you, your family and a predetermined “Roughing the Passer” call on 3rd and 15 in the fourth quarter.

Warren Hurt is Chief Investment Officer for F&M Trust.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no evidence that the predetermined fourth quarter call will be “Roughing the Passer,” it could be any “automatic first down” penalty and/or a poor spot on fourth down. Warren Hurt and F&M Trust do not recommend making investment decisions based upon the outcome of a children’s game played by grown men in February. Financial decisions made relating to the outcome of a children’s game played by grown men in February are not FDIC insured and may (probably will) result in a loss of principal.